Parties Spin Expectations Game
The parties are already spinning and downplaying expectations. Electoral Calculus is a more neutral source and they polled residents of the 201 district and unitary councils up for election, whether and how they intended to vote on Thursday. The poll of 2,148 adults was conducted between 27-28 April. This was used to produce a dynamic MRP prediction of the local elections. This is the now fashionable technique that has been used with some success.
Electoral Calculus are expecting
- Swing of 6% to Labour away from Conservatives
- Labour set to hold 3,500 council seats, with Conservatives holding fewer than 1,000 council seats
- Labour likely to gain around 16 councils
- Conservatives could lose several councils, including the flagships of Wandsworth and Westminster
The net result Electoral Calculus predict is Labour gaining 819 seats and the Tories losing 548 seats. To be honest, the Tories will accept that as normal mid-term losses. What they won’t be happy with is the loss of control of councils, expected to include Barnet, Basildon, Newcastle-under-Lyme, Southampton, Thurrock, Wandsworth and Westminster. The loss of the latter two flagship councils will have an effect on the psyche of Tory MPs. Guido is reluctant to make any predictions but has a gut suspicion that Ed Davey will not make as much progress as he wants. The LibDems just don’t seem to be making a national impact…